2026 has barely started, and we’re already getting some completely wild events...
A small clue: Donald Trump has struck again.
Let’s take stock of the economic and financial situation at the start of this year, compared with 2025.
Traditional finance
Those who paid attention, or watched their leveraged positions get liquidated, will remember Donald Trump’s global tariff announcement on 2 April 2025.
Nine months later, the US market seems to have completely forgotten the shock.
What about France?
EU countries were affected by those measures too.
Looking at the major stock indices, the losses from that announcement have broadly been recovered.
The situation looks better in the US than in France, where other domestic problems, including politics, are weighing on the wider picture.
Of course, indices such as the Dow Jones and CAC 40 don’t reflect every company’s situation. But take a step back, and things seem to be holding up fairly well.
So where’s that crisis everyone talks about?
We’ve been hearing about it for months.
Pessimists predict the apocalypse. Optimists say this is the year we all get rich.
The reality? It’s complicated.
Look closely at the economic indicators and, excuse my language, it’s a shitshow.
- Inflation is still here. We feel it in everyday life
- Interest rates remain high
- Our countries’ excessive debt keeps growing
Yet markets are doing well: indices are recovering, and the economy keeps turning.
So what’s going on? Has the crisis just been postponed? Are we getting a reprieve before it all catches up with us?
I don’t know. It’s hard to make predictions in this strange environment of conflicting signals. You never know what might happen.
In any case, I’m watching Donald Trump and the Fed closely. The next FOMC meetings are on 27 and 28 January 2026.
Current forecasts, thanks, Polymarket, suggest the US central bank won’t cut rates.
Crypto
If anyone was disappointed by 2025, it was those counting on altcoins to perform.
The year everything changed
Let’s say it plainly: nobody saw this coming.
Donald Trump’s actions completely shook up the crypto ecosystem.
A quick reminder if you missed it:
As well as imposing tariffs on everyone, the US president, one of the world’s most influential people, launched a memecoin bearing his own image.
His wife did the same.
Some "investors" made generational wealth in hours. Others lost everything in weeks.
That sums up 2025 pretty well.
A two-speed bull run
Newcomers to crypto could certainly say the year wasn’t much of a bull run.
Those who’d prepared years in advance, on the other hand, could really benefit.
Traditional finance takes over
The arrival of traditional financial players, including ETFs, has transformed crypto deeply.
The market has become even more correlated with traditional finance.
I think that would have happened eventually anyway. Now it’s visible.
People have realised that crypto is a "revolution" on paper, but the necessary foundations aren’t in place yet.
Hence Bitcoin’s dominance, with the rest still very fragile.
The result is that when things wobble, investors turn to reassurance: gold remains the ultimate safe haven.
What now?
At the start of the year, crypto prices seem to be recovering, helped by announcements from players such as JPMorgan.
If the Fed cuts rates and we avoid too many global conflicts, I think crypto should stabilise, perhaps even rise.
International conflicts
The Middle East
2025 was also marked by international conflict, particularly in the Middle East.
Conflicts involving Israel, Iran, Lebanon and Palestine showed how significant the impact of tensions in this region can be.
Things can quickly escalate into global conflict.
Oil prices are also heavily influenced by events there, since flows depend on the region functioning properly.
Ukraine: a war that won’t end
The other ongoing conflict is between Ukraine and Russia.
Despite diplomatic talks and a US plan negotiated with Ukraine in late December, fighting continues.
This war remains a constant source of instability, reassuring nobody.
Venezuela: the US intervention
That brings me to the latest event, and it’s a major one: overnight on 2 to 3 January 2026, the United States carried out a large military operation in Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro.
He and his wife were taken to New York, where they are due to stand trial for drug trafficking.
Donald Trump said the United States would "run" Venezuela until a safe transition could take place.
With this news, it’s hard to ignore that Venezuela has some of the world’s largest oil reserves.
Is this really about drugs after all?
I don’t know, but some countries aren’t looking kindly on it.