Peace in the Middle East?
The war in the Middle East remains this week's main story.
For several days, markets have followed the same pattern:
- News of a truce or negotiations pushes oil lower and helps indices rise.
- Then an incident or tougher political rhetoric brings uncertainty straight back.
Until an agreement is put into practice and holds, every official statement, maritime incident and announcement about negotiations can trigger an immediate move in oil, indices and risk assets.
I cover this in more detail in my market analysis for the week of 20 April 2026.
A few examples:
On 16 April, a 10-day ceasefire announced between Israel and Lebanon temporarily reduced the risk of the conflict spreading.
On 17 April, Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would remain open during the ceasefire, and Donald Trump said he expected an agreement soon.
On 19 April 2026, Donald Trump posted a very aggressive message about Iran on Truth Social:
He accused Iran of violating the ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz, said the United States had already closed the passage with its blockade, and explicitly threatened to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges if negotiations failed.
On the morning of 20 April, another turn: the United States seized an Iranian cargo ship, and Iran refused to join a new round of talks.
Not an easy time to be a retail investor...
Quarterly earnings
The other thing to watch this week is quarterly earnings.
They could drive moves in individual stocks and indices.