US markets
The context was very different when I last analysed the market.
It was bearish, the VIX was starting to fall, and the logical scenario was a continuation of the selling momentum we'd been seeing for several weeks.
The area we'd identified was clear.
I'd simply drawn attention to an alternative scenario: a return to the price broadly accepted over previous weeks. That was the least convenient outcome if we wanted to keep shorting.
And that's exactly what happened.
Not only did sellers fail to regain control, but the return to that accepted price area became the base for a genuine upward imbalance.
Several weeks of clean momentum followed.
In April, there wasn't much complexity to it.
You needed to buy sensible levels: VWAPs, standard-deviation bands and small downward deviations.
Every pullback to a sensible level was a buying opportunity.
Can the rise continue?
That's obviously the question everyone's asking.
We're very high. Nasdaq futures are approaching 27,000, and the S&P broke 7,000 this week, a hugely symbolic level.
The most striking part isn't the break itself. It's that the market didn't stop there.
The classic scenario would have been a break above 7,000, a pause, some position unloading, then a return to lower levels.
But no. The market kept pushing until very late on Friday and closed right at the top.
Is the rise over?
Nobody knows.
Between geopolitics, events in Iran and Trump's sometimes unpredictable statements, there's enough going on to stop anyone getting too comfortable with their reading.
What we can say is that the VIX is returning towards 20-21, potentially suggesting easing market stress.
But in this environment, that isn't certain.
As long as buyers remain in control, avoid positioning against the market.
Why I think a correction is becoming possible
Even though the market remains bullish, I think a small correction is becoming likely this week.
Not because the momentum has broken, simply because we haven't had a real correction for three weeks.
We've had pauses, ranges, resumptions and a single touch of weekly VWAP at 3 a.m. that was bought immediately. But no natural price correction.
What particularly interests me is what we saw late in the week: heavy volume towards the end of the session, with clear position unloading.
That isn't surprising in itself. It's Friday evening in an uncertain environment, and plenty of traders don't want to hold risk over the weekend.
So I'm not taking that signal at face value.
The real question for the start of the week is this: if we get a rotation during the Asian session and the market pulls back a little, do sellers show up again?
That's what we'll need to analyse.
My trading plan for the week
If the market pulls back a little, I won't immediately buy or short. I'll wait.
If we return to sensible levels around the VWAPs and the 7,000 area below, buying starts to look interesting again.
Every clean return to those levels has paid off so far, so there's no reason to abandon that logic while it remains valid.
But if we return towards 7,060 / 7,070 and see a strong seller presence again, we'll need to be wary of buying.
That wouldn't necessarily end the uptrend, but it could at least mark the start of a more serious correction.
If that scenario is confirmed, the interesting level for attempting a short would be around 7,200, aiming to catch the extreme before a retracement.
S&P or Nasdaq: which do I favour?
For now, both are extremely strong, and it's hard to choose.
The logic stays the same: if I need to short, I'll choose the weaker one. If I need to buy, I'll choose the stronger one.
We need to wait for the market to give us that information.
Gold
Gold is behaving a little differently.
Last week, buying at VWAP, or slightly below it, remained the most attractive scenario.
In the end, the market never really came back to offer that entry. It just kept pushing higher.
But unlike the indices, gold has offered real corrections along the way.
Each time, it returned to weekly VWAP before resuming more calmly.
It's rising, but in a more structured and less euphoric way than the indices.
Shorting gold doesn't make sense for now.
Buyers remain strong and clearly step back in at VWAP or slightly below.
For the coming week, the areas below VWAP remain the most interesting places to buy.
The composite profile since the start of the rotation shows that the market remains broadly accepted around 4,800. That's the centre of gravity.
With the symbolic 5,000 level just above and very little accumulated volume between them, there's still room to move higher.
In the current context, investors keep buying gold because it's a manageable market.
Oil
I've been saying it for several weeks: oil isn't a manageable asset in my view right now.
When a market can drop 10%, 15% or even 20% in very little time, with wicks that make clean trading impossible, it isn't a market you can trade comfortably.
So I won't be trading it.
Disclaimer: this analysis reflects only my personal view of the markets and does not constitute investment advice.
