Is the bull run already over?

Just two months ago, everything was in the green.

We could confidently say we were in the middle of a bull run.

Today, though, there’s no denying that things have deteriorated.

Is the bull run already over? Have we entered a bear market?

I did some digging to understand what changed.

What’s happening in the United States?

You can’t make sense of the current situation without talking about the US and its influence on markets.

And there’s an enormous elephant in the room.

His name? Donald Trump.

Since returning to the presidency, he’s been one of the forces disrupting the global economic balance.

Trump means business

For proof, look at his sharp tariff increases on several countries:

• 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico
• 25% on some European products
• 10% on China

Why is he doing it?

He wants to reduce imports and encourage companies to produce in the United States.

Trump believes previous trade agreements weakened the country’s economy.

He wants to take back control by reducing the trade deficit.

Naturally, other countries aren’t sitting quietly. They’re retaliating with similar measures.

These tensions affect the whole world, particularly the US, as the S&P 500 shows.

Unsurprisingly, that instability directly affects financial markets, including crypto.

High US interest rates

Another important factor is the Fed’s policy rates.

They have a huge influence on the economy and financial markets.

Today, 11 March 2025, they stand at 4.75%.

Investors expected a sharp cut after Trump’s election, but it hasn’t happened.

Comparing rates around previous halvings and bull runs makes the changed context clear:

What are the consequences?

High rates make borrowing harder, reducing investors’ ability to invest.

They also create a psychological barrier: investors hesitate, become more cautious and hold back.

Why are policy rates so high?

Mainly because of the Fed’s anti-inflation policies.

Read my inflation article if you’d like to know more.

DOGE reforms

Another source of uncertainty is Elon Musk’s leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which is carrying out sweeping reforms to simplify US bureaucracy.

That’s unsettling markets.

Why?

Because the reforms change the ground rules and create temporary uncertainty about how the economy will operate.

The wider world

In Europe, the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, increasing tensions between the US, Europe and Russia.

Conflict also continues in the Middle East, with negotiations struggling to restore peace. That adds still more uncertainty to the global economy.

High European interest rates

The European Central Bank has started cutting policy rates, but they remain very high compared with previous bull runs.

That makes a crypto recovery harder, as the market has become increasingly dependent on traditional finance.

What’s holding crypto back?

As if that weren’t enough, other events are weakening the crypto ecosystem.

Uninformed investors

Memecoins have attracted plenty of inexperienced investors, drawn by the prospect of quick money.

The problem is that many don’t even understand what they’re putting money into.

Trump Coin, Melania Coin, Ronaldinho Coin...

The list goes on.

They end up losing everything, further damaging crypto’s reputation.

The worst part?

Public figures sometimes endorse scams, such as Argentina’s president Javier Milei with the $LIBRA project.

The Bybit hack

Exchange hacks and thefts always hurt crypto markets.

When one of the largest platforms is hit, the impact is even bigger.

In February, Bybit suffered a $1.5 billion ETH hack, adding to the anxiety.

Has crypto peaked?

Taking a step back, several coins have reached new all-time highs. Except ETH, of course...

Is that simply a sign that we’ve hit a ceiling and a bear market is naturally settling in?

It’s possible, but I don’t think that’s what’s happening.

Regulation still in progress

In the US and France, the SEC and other regulators are still working on a legal framework.

One major development slipped by fairly quietly: the United States announced a national strategic crypto reserve.

Potentially positive news, but drowned out by uncertainty.

My conclusion

All the bull run predictions have fallen short.

They assumed history would repeat itself after Bitcoin’s halving, much as it did in the previous two cycles.

But market conditions are very different now.

Crypto follows traditional markets, which are struggling themselves.

My view:

We haven’t entered a bear market. But as long as policy rates stay high and geopolitical tensions persist, crypto will face difficult conditions, with prices under threat in the short and medium term.

Sources:

• TradingView
• Trading Economics